Confidence-Level Communication in Space Missions to Enhance Accuracy and Safety

AWG Discussions Human AWG Topics
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Hi everyone :slight_smile: What do you think about this idea? :thinking: :upside_down_face: :shaking_face: I’d like to start a discussion. :upside_down_face: :upside_down_face:

Proposal: Integrating Confidence-Level Communication in Space Missions to Enhance Accuracy and Safety

Overview I propose implementing a structured confidence-level communication protocol :receipt: during space missions, especially in high-stakes scenarios such as EVAs (extravehicular activities) :new_moon: , technical assessments, and crew interactions :speech_balloon: . Crew members would verbally express their confidence in the accuracy of their statements using percentage estimates (e.g., “I’m 80% sure the radiation level is within safe limits” or “Neil Armstrong was born in 1939—I’m 65% confident in that answer”). This practice could significantly reduce miscommunication, improve decision-making, and enhance safety. :safety_vest: :landslide:

Rationale

  • :brain: Cognitive Bias Mitigation: Social psychology research, notably by Elliot Aronson and colleagues, highlights the human tendency toward overconfidence in knowledge and judgment. This bias can lead to critical errors, especially in isolated, high-pressure environments like space missions.

  • :rocket: Operational Clarity: Expressing confidence levels allows mission control and crew members to better assess the reliability of information and adjust decisions accordingly.

  • Use of shorthand: Instead of full sentences, astronauts could use compact formats like “Temp 22°C, C:85%” (C = confidence).

  • :repeat_button: Training Imperative: Practicing this protocol during simulations and routine operations is essential. Under stress, cognitive performance and metacognitive awareness decline, making it harder to accurately self-assess knowledge. Early habituation ensures resilience in high-stress environments.

  • :puzzle_piece: Team Coordination: Confidence tagging fosters transparency and trust within the crew, helping to prioritize tasks, validate data, and escalate uncertainties appropriately.

Applications

  • Scientific measurements and diagnostics

  • Historical or technical recall during mission tasks

  • Emergency decision-making

  • Communication with ground control

Conclusion Embedding confidence-level communication into astronaut training and mission protocols could be a low-cost, high-impact strategy to reduce errors and improve team dynamics.

PS: I’m sure this can help with the quality of communication. Confidence: 85%. :slightly_smiling_face:

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Hi @JakubCzapnik - interesting idea proposal. Sometimes the data from OSDR/Genelab can be used for mission planning and tools. It may be worth checking out the About page for an overview:

https://awg.osdr.space/about

Also, have you gone through and reviewed the data itself? Here is the repo browser:

Also the API:

Lastly, it may be interesting to design a response protocol specifically to environemtnal hazards, and anomaly detections/predicitions. Here is the environemtnal data app:

A number of the resources are covered from our annual AWG Catalyst Summit, held this past March. Recording here:

Overall post here:

Also, while I appreciate your perfectly formatted post, I do hope you can explain all your proposal ideas in person if a meeting were to be held to further your ideas, and to not rely too much on LLMs

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I’ll try to prepare it in detail. I’ll find a solid scientific basis. Thank you for the information and links you sent. The idea came to me on a mountain hike. If you want to test it today, try asking someone about a historical fact, such as a date. See how you perceive the answer without stating the percentage of certainty, and then how you perceive the same answer if you ask someone to indicate the percentage of certainty. It’s easy to verify, so I suggest it :slight_smile: Thanks for your support! I’m working on it! :fire:

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Yes I think that idea is worth considering!

Percentages - that’s exactly what I use if I have to communicate something important, but at the same time I am not 99% sure if this represents the reality

(something kinda like that) .

Especially if I would have to remember something from the very past than I certainly do use percentage as a valued uncertainty (no, not that one from Hinsenberg Uncertainty Principle. :grinning_face_with_smiling_eyes: )